Countries hit
by Boko Haram violence were warned on Wednesday not to make premature claims of
victory, despite the Islamist group being pegged back by a sustained military
counter-insurgency.
"Though
the military response to Boko Haram has become more cogent, the Lake Chad
states should not too quickly proclaim 'mission accomplished'," the
International Crisis Group said.
"Even if
they are made to abandon all territorial pretensions in Nigeria's northeast and
the Lake Chad area, or are forced to abandon their guerrilla war, some Boko
Haram militants at least are likely to seek to continue their insurgency in
some form, probably through terror attacks," the security analysts added.
Nigeria and
its neighbours Cameroon, Chad and Niger are due to hold a security summit in
Abuja on May 14 with international partners including Britain, France and the
United States.
The ICG said
the meeting -- two years after the first in Paris -- was "an opportunity
to consolidate regional and wider international cooperation" as well as
review current policies.
Closer ties
beyond military support were vital to address key drivers of the conflict, as
well as its effects, to prevent sustained support for the Islamists and
similar, future threats.
These include
addressing the humanitarian situation for the more than 2.8 million people made
homeless by the violence since 2009, and re-establishing the rule of law and
governance in the region.
Also key was
treatment of detained Boko Haram suspects and even more moderate fighters
willing to be rehabilitated, the ICG wrote in a briefing paper, "Boko
Haram on the back foot?"
"How
governments treat and distinguish Boko Haram ideologues from those who joined
from other motives will be vital," the report said.
"Dealing
appropriately with ex-members is the first step to lessen recruitment."
Nigeria's
military on Tuesday said dozens of Boko Haram fighters were now at a
rehabilitation camp in an undisclosed location and undergoing a
"deradicalisation" programme.
- 'Difficult
to eradicate' -
President
Muhammadu Buhari, who has made defeating Boko Haram a priority since taking
power last year, in December declared that the Islamic State group affiliate
was "technically" defeated.
Armed service
chiefs have in recent days also been talking up operations in Boko Haram's
Sambisa Forest stronghold, indicating a final push was under way.
But the rebels
have still been able to deploy suicide bombers in northeast Nigeria, and
particularly northern Cameroon, even if attacks have decreased in Chad and Niger.
The ICG
recommended winding down the use of civilian militia forces who have helped the
military maintain security but also been accused of abuses against civilians.
A failure to
do so could increase the risk of local, communal violence, it warned, adding:
"Many could become tools for local politicians to misuse."
Boko Haram,
whose push for a hardline Islamic state in northeast Nigeria has left more than
20,000 people dead since 2009, has come to resemble a marauding criminal gang
in recent months.
The ICG,
however, cautioned that its reduced capacity to operate beyond hit-and-run
raids for resources should not be under-estimated.
"Much
like other jihadist groups, such as Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), it
may become less a guerrilla force attached to a specific territory and more a
terror group with a longer reach," the report added.
"Even if it may be on its back foot, Boko
Haram is likely to be difficult to eradicate, because it originates from
Nigeria's deep structural challenges."
These include
deep-seated corruption and poor governance, as well as perceived regional
inequalities, abject poverty and lack of opportunity that Boko Haram was able
to exploit for support.
A failure to tackle these, combined with
uncertainty and weakness in neighbouring countries, could prolong Boko Haram's
existence in a different form or even create a new security threat, the ICG
added.
AFP
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