A Donald Trump
presidency is just as dangerous for the global economy as "jihadi
terrorism," according to the London-based Economist Intelligence
Unit's April 2016 Global Risklist.
The
unit gives a possible Trump presidency a score of 12 on a scale of one to 25.
For context, the EIU gives the Chinese economy experiencing a hard landing a
score of 20 — the highest on the list.
"In
the event of a Trump victory, his hostile attitude to free trade, and
alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a
trade war," according to the accompanyinganalysis. "His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle
East (and ban on all Muslim travel to the US) would be a potent recruitment
tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and
beyond."
This
is the first time that the EIU has included an American presidential candidate
on the list of top 10 global risks, according to the New York Times.
The
EIU does not "expect" that Trump would defeat likely Democratic presidential
nominee Hillary Clinton, but the group suggested that there are
"risks to this forecast" in the event of a sudden economic downturn
or a terrorist attack on U.S. soil.
Even
if Trump is unsuccessful, the EIU still says there will be a knock-on effect
for the U.S. economy, predicting "internal bickering" that could
undermine its policymaking at home and abroad.
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