There is a
deafening bang - a bomb blast. Then another. Dismembered bodies litter the
ground. Agonising wailings rent the air. Emergency aid workers scuttle to the
scene. The dead are relocated to the morgue, and the injured to the hospital.
Security operatives arrive to cordon off the area. The opposition party screams
government incompetence. The president releases a statement to condemn the
insurgents.
In northeastern
Nigeria, this is a familiar story. When Boko Haram struck on Wednesday, only
the fine details were altered. This time, the target was a mosque in Ummarari
village near Molai, on the outskirts of Maiduguri, Boko Haram's capital.
Two girls bore the
bombs. As one targeted the mosque itself, the other went after fleeing Muslims.
Twenty-two people died; 18 were injured. But contrary to the machinations of
the insurgents, this is not an attack that will strike fear into the hearts of
the people.
Not without a fight
There was a time,
even in the Muhammadu Buhari era, when Boko Haram was truly ruthless. The assumption of presidential
power by the retired military officer and former dictator looked primed to
spell the end of the sect. Far from it.
In just three
attacks in Buhari's first three months in office, Boko Haram accounted for the
death of 241 people. This excluded a certain week in July when souls perished
every single day in pockets of attacks.
Fast-forward to
Buhari's latest three months in office, and the statistics show a sect far
decimated in number and potency. In the three months of 2016, the three
highest-profile attacks have killed 79 people - one-third of the June-August
2015 figures.
Triple blasts in Chibok on January 27 claimed 13 people; eight people were killed by a suicide
bomber two days later; while - in its highest-casualty attack of 2016 - 58
Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) were bombed to death while awaiting food at their camp in
Borno in February.
Signs of Boko Haram's last days
The Nigerian army
has a history of embellishing its victories over Boko Haram while
underestimating its own losses, which is the only possible explanation for
Buhari's insistence that no single local government is under the grip of the
terrorists.
While the claim has already been punctured by David Rodriguez, commander of
the US Africa Command (USAFRICOM), Borno residents have confirmed that the sect no longer
operates at full strength, even if some villages are still no-go zones.
It is almost six
months since Boko Haram last released a video - its preferred medium of
publicly instilling terror in the people and eminent supporters of the military
and the government.
In the last of such
videos - a 17-minute clip released on October 5, 2015 - neither Abubakar Shekau
nor his impostor made an appearance. The closest to an appearance was the unidentified fighter blurting: "Our leader Abubakar
Shekau is alive and remains our leader."
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It is no
coincidence that Boko Haram leaders have lost their voice; among them, there
are dissenting ideas on how best to hurt their targets. The February attack on
IDPs was followed by reports of internal wrangling on the propriety of
attacking displaced persons.
Some aggrieved members have also jumped ship, ending up in Libya,
Syria and other battlegrounds, promising the comrades they left behind that
they would "return when things have changed".
Decimated - not
defeated
Although Lai
Mohammed, Minister of Information and Culture, would have none of it, it is
still premature to label Boko Haram as "defeated". Decimated? Surely.
But to suggest that
the war has been won is to undermine the sanctity of human life; it will never
be over until civilians in the northeast can go about their normal business
without fearing for their lives - until we get to a point where yesterday's
tragedy is unable to repeat itself.
To say this war is
over amounts to shunning the societal hangovers of terrorism. There are
millions of displaced persons in camps all over the northeast and in homeless
countries who need to find their feet.
Hundreds of
thousands of people in previously raided villages are starving and lacking
access to potable water and basic healthcare. This war will never be over until
the millions of lives shattered by Boko Haram have been rebuilt.
To suggest it is
over is to contradict the pre-swearing-in promise of Buhari that victory over
insurgents would not have been achieved until the abducted Chibok girls are
rescued.
But to not spot
Boko Haram's recent reliance on individual, vengeful attacks in place of the
group's original doctrine-driven campaign is to stubbornly overlook the
progress that has been made against the sect.
Boko Haram may have
succeeded in killing 22 people on Wednesday, but it is no longer the fearsome
sect we used to know. We hope that it will never be.
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